US GDP Slows to 1.4% Amid Government Shutdown

US Economic Growth Slows Amid Government Shutdown

Washington, D.C. The United States economy lost momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, growing at a significantly slower pace than expected as the impact of last year’s government shutdown and softer consumer spending weighed on overall performance.

According to advance estimates released by the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the final quarter of the year well below economists’ forecasts of 3% growth.

This marks a sharp deceleration from the robust 4.4% expansion recorded in the third quarter, underscoring the fragile balance between economic resilience and structural pressures.

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Government Shutdown: A Direct Hit to Growth

The record 43-day government shutdown played a significant role in the slowdown. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated the shutdown shaved approximately 1.5 percentage points off fourth-quarter GDP.

The economic damage stemmed from:

• Reduced federal services
• Lower government spending on goods and services
• Temporary cuts to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits
• Lost wages for federal employees

While the CBO expects most of the lost output to be recovered over time, it projects that $7 billion to $14 billion in economic activity may never be regained.

Before the official report’s release, former President Donald Trump commented on social media, claiming the shutdown cost “at least two points in GDP” and renewed calls for lower interest rates.

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A “K-Shaped” Recovery Deepens

The latest data also highlights what many economists describe as a “K-shaped” economy — where higher-income households continue to thrive while lower- and middle-income Americans struggle with affordability challenges.

Key Signals:

• Only 181,000 jobs were added in 2025, the weakest annual performance outside the pandemic since the 2009 Great Recession.
• This is a sharp drop from the 1.459 million jobs added in 2024.
• Wage growth has slowed while import tariffs have fueled inflation pressures.
• Lower-income households are feeling the strain of higher living costs.

Consumer spending, traditionally the engine of U.S. economic growth, slowed notably from the third quarter’s 3.5% pace. Analysts say much of the recent spending has been driven by wealthier households often at the expense of savings.

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What Could Boost Growth in 2026?

Despite the slowdown, economists see potential tailwinds for the coming year.

1. Tax Cuts and Larger Refunds

Many analysts anticipate larger tax refunds in 2026 due to recent tax adjustments, which could provide a boost to disposable income and stimulate consumer spending.

2. Artificial Intelligence Investment

Investment in artificial intelligence continues to be a powerful growth engine.

Economists estimate that AI-related sectors including:

• Data centers
• Semiconductors
• Software
• Research & development

accounted for nearly one-third of GDP growth during the first three quarters of 2025.

This surge in AI infrastructure spending helped offset economic drag from tariffs and reduced immigration flows.

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Monetary Policy Impact

Given that the GDP report reflects past economic activity and was delayed due to the shutdown itself, economists believe it is unlikely to significantly influence near-term Federal Reserve policy decisions.

However, the combination of weaker job growth, uneven consumer resilience, and structural affordability pressures will remain central themes for policymakers in 2026.

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The Bigger Picture

The fourth-quarter slowdown does not signal recession but it does highlight vulnerabilities in the current expansion.

The U.S. economy appears to be navigating three powerful forces simultaneously:

• Policy uncertainty
• Inflation and affordability challenges
• Technological transformation driven by AI

While the government shutdown temporarily disrupted economic momentum, long-term structural investments particularly in artificial intelligence and innovation could determine whether growth regains strength in the coming year.